Communities should stay informed and alert about weather systems in the Pacific. and be prepared in case of a natural disaster.
Source: SPREP
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) across the Pacific are being urged to plan and collaborate with communities to reduce the impacts of extreme weather events associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Neutral state.
El Niño and La Niña are the extreme phases of the ENSO cycle; between these two phases is a third phase of the climate cycle – ENSO Neutral.
At the conclusion of the 16th Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF-16) held virtually, the World Metrological Organisation (WMO) RA-V Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network declared the region is entering an ENSO Neutral phase for the next five months, though there is low confidence in the prediction because of the spring predictability barrier.
So, what does this mean for the Pacific region and what can communities expect?
Senior Climatologist at the Secretariat of the Pacific Environment Programme (SPREP) Philip Malsale says the ENSO Neutral phase is also associated with extreme impacts across the region.
The impacts are related to rainfall, air temperature, ocean surface temperature, sea levels, coral bleaching, and likely tropical cyclones.
“We expect below normal rainfall in the Central Equatorial Pacific over Nauru, Phoenix Islands (Kiribati), as well as Eastern FSM and RMI,” Philip explains
“Above normal rainfall is expected over Palau, PNG, Solomon Islands and above normal rainfall is also predicted over Vanuatu, Fiji and Samoa.
“From August to October 2025, below-normal rainfall is expected around the southern off-equatorial central Pacific region near Tuvalu, Kiribati, Northern Cook Islands, while above normal rainfall is favoured in the Western North Pacific over Palau and parts of the FSM.”
Philip also cautions Pacific NMHSs to note regions where abnormally higher tides are predicted and higher than normal sea levels, pointing out the combination of higher tides and above-normal sea levels may elevate the risk of coastal inundation.
“Coral bleaching alerts are in effect for Palau, southern FSM, PNG, Nauru, western Kiribati, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu from April to July 2025 – these alerts are expected to remain in effect to July.”
The forum was attended by more than 70 participants, who reviewed the climate and oceanic conditions in the western Pacific region from November 2024 to April 2025 and discussed the seasonal climate, ocean and tropical cyclone outlooks for the western Pacific region for May to October 2025.
Officer in Charge for Climate Services Information at SPREP Naheed Hussein, says the PICOF plays a vital role in strengthening the good working relationship between regional organisations and RCC within SPREP, and between NMHSs and sectors in country.
This is vital for the protection of members of the communities when it comes to different weather cycles.
“It is important to note that although we are expecting ENSO neutral, this can also link to some extreme events in some countries,” Naheed says.
“NMHS and sectors should plan on how to reduce impacts of extreme events associated with this ENSO phase through organising National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF) and update government agencies on sectors, joint radio programmes on how best to prepapre, social media post informing communities on best practises, and awareness programmes.
“Sectors know best when it comes to sectoral impacts and it is best to work with them to plan ahead, this is vital in our work to protect lives and properties.”
Members of the community should stay informed, take heed of alerts and ensure they access the correct information and warnings from their National Meteorological Services.
Visit the Pacific Met website for information on the outlook for the next five months.
